Future Climate

greenhouse effect     climate past    climate present    climate future

What is the future of the Earth's climate in the 21st century and beyond? This is not an easy question; it depends on how much carbon dioxide we emit to the atmosphere and how the climate will respond.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global team of scientists, estimate that the Earth will warm somewhere between 2.2 degrees F and 10 degrees F (1.4-5.8 degrees C) between now and 2100. This uncertainty is large and the consequences high--a warming of 2 degrees F is much less dangerous than one of 10 degrees F.

The chart to the left shows the results from a number of different simulations based on different programs and different (note the axis is in degrees C, not F). The dark blue shows the range of highest confidence in temperature. Most importantly, note how big the estimated increase is compared to the increase in temperature betwen 1800 and 2000, and then take another look at the graph for climate over the past 1,000 years.

We have a large ability to affect this future. Much of the uncertainty is because we don't know how much greenhouse gasses we emit. If we can learn to be more efficient and use fewer fossil fuels, we will find ourselves on one of the lower trajectories. If not, summer days could be more than 10 degrees F (5 degrees C) warmer.